Thursday, June 10, 2010

How Warren Buffet made his billions

Warren Buffett is a man who has made millions but he also started working at his father's brokerage when he was 11 years old, that's an age when most other kids were playing hide-n-seek and didn't know how to spell 'brokerage'.

This financial wizard is by recent estimates, worth $46 billion but how he got there is the fascinating story.

It all began in the family grocery store back in Omaha. Buffett's great grandfather started the store in 1869 and it was in the Buffet family until 1969, till his uncle finally retired. But it's at this store, where he began going around his neighbourhood selling gum. This was before his stint at his father's firm.

Warren Buffett told CNBC's Liz Claman, "My grandfather would sell me Wrigley's chewing gum and I would go door to door around my neighbourhood selling it. He also sold me six Coca Cola for a quarter and I would sell it for a nickel each in the neighbourhood, so I made a small profit. I was always trying to do something like this."

From small beginnings come bigger things and so after selling gum, soft drinks and working with his father, by age 14, he had bought a 40 acres farm in Washington, Thurston County.

But he confesses that he never enjoyed the farm as much as he enjoyed investing in stocks. But the first stock he bought was "Citi Service preferred stock. I had three shares and made all of $5 on it. I had bought it at $38.25 and then I sold it around $40, it went down to $27 in between and after I sold it at $40, it went to $200!"

From that poorly timed stock sale in 1944, he learnt a lesson that became his legendary investment strategy - which is essentially - patience pays, so buy them and hold them. He figured out two other critical things about himself in the 1940s - what he is good at and what he likes to do.

This pivotal moment in his journey came in 1956, when he was just 25 years old. This man who was rejected by Harvard and now armed with contributions from family and friends and $100 of his own money starts a limited partnership with seven people.

Over the next nine years, Buffett turned a $105,000 into $26 million - a stunning 24,000 per cent increase! He had invested mostly in textile companies, farm equipment manufacturers and even a company making windmills.

Thirteen years later, Buffett forms another partnership that becomes one of the greatest teams in the history of investing. He convinces longtime friend Charlie Munger to quit his investment partnership to join Buffett as his Vice President of Berkshire Hathaway.

And now with the 82-year-old Munger, Buffett sits on top of the greatest holding companies ever.

So, it's understandable that this man is looked up to for investment and business advice all the time. But what's the secret gift he's got? How does he pick the right investments all the time? He explains, "I look for something that I can understand to start with, there are all kinds of businesses I don't understand."

"I don't understand what car companies are going to do 10 years from now, or what software or chemical companies are going to win/do ten years from now but I do understand that Snickers bars will be the number one candy company in the US - like its been for 40 years. So, I look for durable competitive advantage and that is hard to find. I look for an honest and able management and I look for the price I'm going to pay."

While Buffett's big acquisitions have made headlines; wise investments in companies like Coco Cola, the Washington Post and Gillette have provided the capital to make those acquisitions possible. Since taking control of Berkshire in 1964, the company has acquired 68 subsidiaries. In March of 1964, Berkshire acquired its first insurance company National Indemnity.

In 1972, See's Candies for $25 million, in September of 1983, Nebraska Furniture Mart and Borhseim's in 1989. In 1998, Berkshire acquired Dairy Queen and Geico in January, Net Jets in August and General Re Corp in December. In April of 2002, Fruit of the Loom and most recently Buffett is looking abroad for new business.

Recently, he bought 80 per cent of the Israeli Metal Works Company and he did it without even seeing it. He was approached by the promoter via a letter and what was in that letter convinced him that 'this was the kind of the person I wanted to do business with and it is the kind of business we wanted to own.' How does this 'daring bit of investment fit in with his usual careful way of investing?

He explains, "I had to size up the business but that's a background of being in stocks. If you put your whole net worth in stocks when you are 20-21 years old - you have not visited the businesses but you are really analyzing their financials, you are trying to assess whether they have durable competitive advantage, assess the quality of the management and the integrity of the management and then you try to figure out whether you are buying it at a reasonable price and that's it, that is all we do."

He's never had anything lacking - his acute business brain has made him a lot of money. He also feels that the youth of today are living better than John D Rockefeller. His own style remains the same - he lives in the same house for 48 years, carries no cellphone, has no computer on his office desk, does not move around with an entourage.

As he puts it, "I have had everything I wanted all my life. At 20, I was having the time of my life doing what I did. Today, I'm eating the same things I always eat - burghers, fries and cherry coke. Only my clothes are more expensive now but they look cheap when I put them on!"

At 76, he married his long-time companion, Astrid Menks at a low-key ceremony at his daughter Susan's house. He is also amazingly healthy for someone on a burghers-coke diet. He's also surprisingly down to earth. He moves around freely unencumbered by a security detail. He does have a few guards with him during the annual shareholders meeting but he says he doesn't feel the need to put himself in a cocoon.

Which probably explains, why he wasn't nervous about visiting a factory in Israel, which is close to the Lebanese border. He says of that visit, "Our plant there is about 8-10 miles from the Lebanese border and there were maybe a rocket or two that hit the parking lot or something like that but it can be dangerous being in this (US) country as well."

Buffett is comfortable in Omaha in part because people leave him alone with the exception of a random fan or two. This billionaire doesn't even have a chauffeur - he drives himself around in a 2006 Cadillac DTS, recently purchased after he auctioned off his old Lincoln Town Car, which was famous for its Thrifty license plate. And no, he does not want a yacht or many mansions. He just wants to be left alone to enjoy a good football game in his sweatsuit on a big screen television - with popcorn.

It's really no surprise that America's most prominent investor chooses to live far from the nation's wealthy-elite in New York, Los Angeles, Chicago and Miami. He says that when he was in New York, he had about a 100 ideas about where to invest but it was over-stimulation.

In Omaha, he needs one good idea in a year and he feels he can think better and with less distraction. He feels there is a sense of community in living there.

His investing theories have been talked about ad nauseum by almost every business/finance writer and is a cottage industry all by itself.

But one he finds closest to reflecting his views is a book written by Larry Cunningham - 'The Essays of Warren Buffett - Lessons for Corporate America' is required reading in a one of a kind course start at the University of Missouri School of Business.

The course is called Investment Strategies of Warren Buffett. It turns up Buffett is hot on campus too. The class now in its eighth year and is the brainchild of Buffett's friend Harvey Eisen.

Harvey Eisen recalls, "This course is a breakthrough in terms of reality meeting academics. I said why don't we have a course like this and the academics scratched their head and said 'well we don't' and I said 'why don't we' and then we got it done."

Dean of the University of Missouri School of Business Bruce Walker bought the idea. He says, "We want our students to be exposed to many different approaches to investing."

The Buffett playbook is taught, analysed and written about but it is best summed up like this.

Harvey Eisen explains it, "Number one - Don't lose the money and number two - don't forget rule number 1! Number three - look for unique companies that are hard to replicate - he calls that a moat around the business. Number four - he talks about the circle of competence, which means in simple English, do what you know.

"Everybody in the stock market knows about the economy or about the Federal Reserve. Warren focuses on what he knows and he has made enormous successes at that."

He does not want his managers to report in at any committee meeting of any kind and he lets them get on with the business of running their businesses. But there is one thing he requires of each CEO. Buffett says, "I asked them to send me a letter, that I would keep in a private place that will tell me what to do tomorrow morning, if they are not alive in terms of their successor."

But what about his own successor? He says, "The succession plan is very simple. Our board met a few days ago and we talked about that every in single meeting and we have at least three people inside Berkshire, who in many respects will do my job better than I do. I can't give you the names but the board knows which one of those three they would pick, if something happened to me."

Warren Buffett has also given away $31 billion of his fortune to the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and he 'hopes it will accomplish just what they have set out to accomplish. I have observed their Foundation very carefully and Bill & Melinda decided initially they were spending about a billion a year. They have decided they were going to try and figure how they are going to save most lives, relieve the most human suffering.'

Ultimately, that's what money is really meant for, isn't it?

10 Ways To Lose All your Money in Trading

#10 - Put all of your efforts into finding the perfect technical indicator. Once you find this magical indicator, it will be like turning on a water faucet. Go all in. The money will just flow into your account!

#9 - When your technical indicator says that the stock is oversold, BUY IT RIGHT THEN. Always do what your technical indicator says to do. It takes precedence over price action.

#8 - Make sure to visit a lot of stock trading forums and ask them for hot stock tips. Also, ask all your friends and family for stock tips. They are usually right, and acting on these tips can make you very rich.

#7 - Watch what other traders do and be sure to follow the crowd. After all, they have been trading a lot longer than you so naturally they are smarter.

#6 - Pay very close attention to the fundamentals of a company. You MUST know the P/E ratio, book value, profit margins, etc. Once you find a "good company", consider going on margin to pay for shares in their stock.

#5 - Forget about developing a trading plan. If you see a good stock just buy it. Don't worry about when your going to sell. No need to get caught up in the details. Besides, you'll probably get rich the first year of trading anyway.

#4 - Buy expensive computers and trading software. While your at it, buy a couple more TV's so that you can watch CNBC on multiple screens! You NEED all of these gadgets in order to trade stocks successfully. Then watch the money roll in!

#3 - Always follow your emotions. They are there for a reason. If you feel nervous, sell the stock! If you are excited, buy more shares. This is the best way to trade stocks and fatten up your trading account.

#2 - Don't worry about using stop loss orders. When the time comes, you will be able to sell your shares and take a loss. Your emotions won't even come into play. Besides, stop loss orders are for sissies!

#1 - Absolutely, without a doubt, FORGET about managing your money. Don't worry about how much you can lose on a trade. Only think about how much loot your gonna make. Then start planning that trip to Fiji!

Well, there you have it - my top 10 tips for new traders.

This list was easy to write because

I followed them all when I first started trading.

13 Things Your Broker Won't Tell You

Axiom One:

Where there is profit, there is always risk. Greater the opportunity of profit, greater the possibility of loss:

There is a close direct relationship between the risk and the reward. Higher the reward, greater the risk. Though this is fairly simple, it is always observed in breach.

Axiom Two:
Gentlemen who prefer BONDS, don’t know what they are missing. On Bonds, there is no return ON our money; there is only return OF our money:
Bonds being Debt instruments unlike equity, yield only fixed return and with inflation and income tax factored in, there is often no return at all.

Axiom Three:

Equity Investment is “risk” investment:
Investing in equity shares of companies is risk related because returns are linked to the company’s profits unlike investing in bank deposits or bonds or debentures where the returns are fixed and accrue to investors regardless of the company’s profits.

Axiom Four:
Stock market behaviour is unpredictable:
Stock market behaviour is dependent on human behaviour and since times immemorial, it has been established that human behaviour can never be predicted with any reasonable accuracy; and hence we have fluctuations in prices of commodities, things and stocks based on greed, emotions, hopes, fantasies, fear and dreams resulting in opportunities of making money out of such fluctuations!

Axiom Five:
Not all common stocks are common:

Though equity shares as an investment class is one, each company has a distinct identity and performs differently and therefore rewards its investors also differently.

Axiom Six:

Investing is nothing but arbitrage of ignorance:

Investing is basically profiting from pricing and difference in market perception of a given product at a given point of time. Stock market is one place where the buyer and the seller both think that they are smart in their decision.

Axiom Seven:
Elephants don’t gallop, zebras do:

Stock prices of big companies with large capitalizations move up or down rather slowly compared to smaller companies because there is not much of market ignorance on big companies to capitalize on. Hence smaller companies tend to reward its investors more handsomely.

Axiom Eight:
Equity investment is not for everyone, nor for all times of a person’s life:

One needs not only “cash” but also “courage” to be an equity investor. There has to be a positive mental temperament and willingness to absorb occasional losses. Those prone to panic at losses should remain invested in fixed deposits with banks and Government Bonds. If you don’t know who you are, stock market is too expensive a place to find it out! Even for a risk loving investor, there is no single static investment strategy valid from his “cradle” to “crematorium”.

Axiom Nine:
Investors make mistake in buying not good stocks at high prices but in buying bad stocks at low prices.

A lay investor tends to buy unsound companies at cheap prices instead of solid companies at high prices.

Axiom Ten:
Equity investment can’t maximize your “income”; but it can maximize your “wealth”.

Actual yield by way of dividends on equity shares with reference to their market value is often as low as 1 percent on our investment. But capital appreciation in equity values can be mind blowingly high. Ask initial investors of Infosys, Pantaloon to name only two companies.

Axiom Eleven:

Saving for investment is not a punishment.

Investing is making conscious choices about how you will use your money. It is not about choosing to live rich or die rich. It is about how you want you and your dear ones should live during your lifetime and thereafter.

Axiom Twelve:
On Stock Prices:

(i) There is no “high” price or “low” price of a stock. There is only the “market” price of the stock nor any price too “high” for you to buy or too “low” for you to sell.

(ii) In isolation, price of a stock is not relevant. What is important is whether a share is “underpriced” or “overpriced”, overvalued or undervalued.

(iii) We do not invest in Stock Market Index; nor in Stock Market; nor in individual companies. We invest in a stock at a price at the correct “time”.

(iv) You can’t control the “market” nor the individual stock prices; but you can control your “reaction” to the market.

(v) Intelligent investing is knowing “what” to buy; smart investing is knowing “when” to buy.

(vi) Your profit is determined by your purchase price and not your sale price. Timing your purchase is important.

(vii) Don’t ask the price of the stock, ask what is the worth of the entire company to know whether the stock is worth investing.

Axiom Thirteen:
On Share Brokers:

(i) Don’t expect your broker to help you to earn “for” you. He is there to earn “from” you.

(ii) The sub-broker made money and the main broker made money and two out of three making money in a single transaction is not a bad bargain.

(iii) Never ask a broker whether you should buy a particular stock, it is like asking a barber if you needed a haircut.

Investor: This was great education!

Trading Quotes

"Don't focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have."

Paul Tudor Jones



"The most important thing in making money is not letting your losses get out of hand."

Marty Schwartz



"I always define my risk, and I don't have to worry about it."

Tony Saliba



"The key to trading success is emotional discipline. If intelligence were the key, there would be a lot more people making money trading... I know this will sound like a cliche, but the single most important reason that people lose money in the financial markets is that they don't cut their losses short."

Victor Sperandeo



"I think investment psychology is by far the more important element, followed by risk control, with the least important consideration being the question of where you buy and sell."

Tom Basso



"If I have positions going against me, I get right out; if they are going for me, I keep them... Risk control is the most important thing in trading. If you have a losing position that is making you uncomfortable, the solution is very simple: Get out, because you can always get back in."

Paul Tudor Jones



"The elements of good trading are: (1) cutting losses, (2) cutting losses, and (3) cutting losses. If you can follow these three rules, you may have a chance."

Ed Seykota



"When I get hurt in the market, I get the hell out. It doesn't matter at all where the market is trading. I just get out, because I believe that once you're hurt in the market, your decisions are going to be far less objective than they are when you're doing well... If you stick around when the market is severely against you, sooner or later they are going to carry you out."

Randy McKay



"I'll keep reducing my trading size as long as I'm losing... My money management techniques are extremely conservative. I never risk anything approaching the total amount of money in my account, let alone my total funds."

Randy McKay



"The fundamental law of investing is the uncertainty of the future."

Peter Bernstein



"There is the plain fool who does the wrong thing at all times anywhere, but there is the Wall Street fool who thinks he must trade all the time."

Jesse Livermore



"One common adage...that is completely wrongheaded is: You can't go broke taking profits. That's precisely how many traders do go broke. While amateurs go broke by taking large losses, professionals go broke by taking small profits."

William Eckhardt

The Two Realities of Trading

There are two realities every trader must understand and accept before she/he can actually start trading for a living!

1) It Is Impossible to Predict Market Turns

It has become very common in the financial markets for analysts or "experts" to offer their "outlook", or predictions for various markets. In fact, it has become so common that many traders just assume that if so many people claim to be able to predict the future action of the markets, then it must be possible. Nothing could be further from the truth.

There are two great emotions at work in the markets - fear and greed. However, contrary to conventional thinking, greed is not always manifested as a lustful longing or need to make money. Quite often it is manifested in the form of "hope". And what could give a trader more "hope" than the belief that he may be able to know in advance what a given market is going to do? But, think about it for a moment. Can you think of any other endeavor where people can actually predict the future?

In order to be a successful futures trader, you must learn not to rely on predictions and forecasts. It is possible to find a person or committee or indicator or wave count which will occasionally offer a prediction which actually comes true. However, the fact of the matter is that there is no person, committee, indicator, or wave count, etc. which can consistently and accurately predict tops and bottoms in any market. It is simply not possible to do so on a regular basis.

Once you free yourself of this notion, you open up your mind to the more important task of determining the current trend in a given market. In the long run, such knowledge will be much more useful than a thousand forecasts.

2) Losing Trades are a Natural Part of Trading

Novice traders have a great deal of trouble accepting the notion that losing trades are a "natural" part of trading. Yet, if you are actively "cutting your losses" on trades that don't go in your favor, a losing trade can actually be thought of as a positive step, because it is the act of consistently limiting your losses to a manageable amount which allows you to keep coming back to trade another day. While losing money on a given trade is not in itself a good thing, the very act of keeping each individual loss to a minimum is a necessary step in trading profitably over the long run.

When starting out, traders often shoot for a high percentage of winning trades, even though that generally means taking profits quickly and missing some big winners. More experienced traders come to realize that the percentage of trades which are winners is often a meaningless statistic. In the end, the only thing that counts is if the amount earned on winning trades exceed the amount lost on losing trades. As long as that is the case, it matters little if 3 out of 10 trades are profitable or if 7 out of 10 trades are profitable. The key is to make alot when you win and to lose a little when you lose.

19 Psychological Biases to Investing

1) Mental Accounting. This is the tendency to value some dollars less than others. One example of this is the "House Money" effect: if you are gambling at a casino and you have been fortunate enough to win, you might tend to be more risk-seeking with your earnings than you would be with your principal.

2) Loss Aversion. This is the tendency to feel more pain by losing money than you would feel satisfaction in gaining an equal amount of money.

3) Myopic Loss Aversion. This is the tendency to focus on avoiding short-term losses, even at the expense of long-term gains. For example, this explains why people tend to buy insurance policies with low deductibles and low limits, despite it being opposite to what is clearly in their long-term best interests (i.e., most people would be best served with high deductibles and high coverage limits).

4) Sunk Cost Fallacy. This is the tendency to "throw good money after bad." It is related to Regret Aversion and Loss Aversion.

5) Status Quo Bias. This is the tendency to want to keep things the way they are.

6) Endowment Effect. This is the tendency to consider something you own to be worth more than it would be if you didn't own it.

7) Regret Aversion. This is the tendency to avoid taking an action due to a fear that in hindsight it will turn out to have been less than optimal.

8) Money Illusion. This is a confusion between "real" and actual changes in money (i.e., time value of money and inflation effects).

9) Bigness Bias. This is the tendency to pay more attention to big numbers than small numbers (e.g., we are more impressed by the fact that a particular mutual fund had a 50% return last year than we are discouraged by the fact that the same fund has an expense ratio of 3% and a sales load of 5%).

10) The Law of Small Numbers. This is the tendency to exaggerate the degree to which a small sample resembles the population from which it is drawn. This is related to the Recency bias.

11) Recency Bias. We tend to associate more importance to recent events than we do to less recent events (e.g., during the great bull market of '95-'99, many people implicitly presumed that the market would continue its enormous gains forever, forgetting the fact that bear markets have tended to occasionally happen in the more distant past). This is related to the Law of Small Numbers.

12) Anchoring. This is clinging to a fact or figure that should have no bearing on your decision. Often, we use an initial value as a "starting point" in decision making. Even if the initial value was a totally random uneducated guess, we tend to be biased towards it.

13) Confirmation Bias. This is the tendency to look for, favor, and be overly persuaded by information that confirms your initial impressions. Conversely, we tend to ignore and dismiss information which tends to disprove our initial impressions.

14) Self Serving Bias(Overconfidence). This is the tendency to overestimate our own abilities (i.e., we aren't as smart as we think we are). People tend to think that they are much better forecasters and estimators than they actually are.

15) Optimism. People tend to be optimistic about the future. This might also be termed, "wishful thinking."

16) Information Cascades. This is the tendency to ignore our own objective information and instead focus on emulating the actions of others (e.g., the tendency to sell a stock solely because others are bidding the price down, or buying a stock solely because others are bidding the price up). This is also known as "herding."

17) False Consensus. This is the tendency to think that others are just like us.

18) Weakness of Will. This is the tendency to consciously do things which we sincerely know are wrong. A non-financial example includes smoking cigarettes (we know we shouldn't do it but many do it anyway). A financial example includes living within our means (we know we should do it, but we often don't).

19) Credulity. While we might like to believe that we are all perfectly rational, reality is far different. Unfortunately, we tend to be susceptible to the manipulative messages that the financial industry and the popular press put out. Specifically, mutual fund companies tend to conspicuously advertise positive information, while suppressing negative information. The popular press encourages conventional wisdom on investing issues because it helps them sell magazines (despite being provably wrong).

Golden Rules of Trading

1 Plan your trades. Trade your plan.
2 Keep records of your trading results.
3 Keep a positive attitude, no matter how much you lose.
4 Don't take the market home.
5 Forget your College degree and trust your instincts.
6 Successful traders buy into bad news and sell into good news.
7 Successful traders are not afraid to buy high and sell low.
8 Continually strive for patience, perseverance, determination, and rational action.
9 Limit your losses - use stops!
10 Never cancel a stop loss order after you have placed it!
11 Place the stop at the time you make your trade.
12 Never get into the market because you are anxious because of waiting.
13 Avoid getting in or out of the market too often.
14 The most difficult task in speculation is not prediction but self-control. Successful trading is difficult and frustrating. You are the most important element in the equation for success.
15 Always discipline yourself by following a pre-determined set of rules.
16 Remember that a bear market will give back in one month what a bull market has taken three months to build.
17 Don't ever allow a big winning trade to turn into a loser. Stop yourself out if the market moves against you 20% from your peak profit point.
18 Expect and accept losses gracefully. Those who brood over losses always miss the next opportunity, which more than likely will be profitable.
19 Split your profits right down the middle and never risk more than 50% of them again in the market.
20 The key to successful trading is knowing yourself and your stress point.
21 The difference between winners and losers isn't so much native ability as it is discipline exercised in avoiding mistakes.
22 Speech may be silver but silence is golden. Traders with the golden touch do not talk about their success.
23 Dream big dreams and think tall. Very few people set goals too high. A man becomes what he thinks about all day long.
24 Accept failure as a step towards victory.
25 Have you taken a loss? Forget it quickly. Have you taken a profit? Forget it even quicker!